Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
